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Calculated Risks Book Summary : At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
A Calculated Risk Book Summary : A female financial whiz plans the perfect bank heist in this “high-tech, high-stakes” thriller from the #1 international-bestselling author of The Eight (The Washington Post). Verity Banks is the one of the most powerful women in finance, but she still reports to a man. Her boss not only refuses to implement her security plan to safeguard customers’ deposits, he also sabotages her shot at becoming director of security at the Federal Reserve. Outraged, Verity decides to take revenge by hitting her boss where it will hurt the most: right in his company’s balance sheet. She is about to begin her assault when she hears from the last person she ever expected to see again, Zoltan Tor. A brilliant computer scientist who taught Verity everything she knows, Zoltan will help her if she agrees to an outlandish wager: Which of them can steal $1 billion, invest it to make $30 million in three months, and return it before anyone notices? Verity can use a computer; Zoltan will do it the old-fashioned way. To beat Zoltan at his own game, Verity will risk her fortune, her professional reputation—and her life. This ebook features an illustrated biography of Katherine Neville including rare images from her life and travels.
Calculated Risk Large Print 16pt Book Summary : Mark W. Clark was a major figure in World War II. He was prominent as one of the top American commanders. Together with Dwight D. Eisenhower, Omar N. Bradley, and George S. Patton, Jr., Clark was widely regarded as being responsible for victory on the European side of the conflict. - from the introduction One of the great World War II memoirs by a legendary American general in charge of operations in North Africa and Italy. General Mark W. Clark recounts his wartime exploits and tells the story of the battles in Tunisia and Italy with verve and attention to key detail. An unparalleled account by a great military leader.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus" Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs—save for an account of his role in the Gemini program—before the tragic launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, which took his life and those of Edward White and Roger Chaffee. The international prestige of winning the Moon Race cannot be understated, and Grissom played a pivotal and enduring role in securing that legacy for the United States. Indeed, Grissom was first and foremost a Cold Warrior, a member of the first group of Mercury astronauts whose goal it was to beat the Soviet Union to the moon. Drawing on extensive interviews with fellow astronauts, NASA engineers, family members, and friends of Gus Grissom, George Leopold delivers a comprehensive survey of Grissom’s life that places his career in the context of the Cold War and the history of human spaceflight. Calculated Risk: The Supersonic Life and Times of Gus Grissom adds significantly to our understanding of that tumultuous period in American history. --Publisher
Calculated Risk Book Summary : When John Dunlop gives Judy Scott a lift to Glencoe on his motorbike, both are surprised when a relationship develops. But for John all passions must be relegated to the demands of the big climb.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : Famous for leading the Tokyo Raid, America's first strike against Japan in World War II, Jimmy Doolittle led a remarkable life as an American pilot. This firsthand account by his granddaughter reveals an extraordinary individual—a scientist with a doctorate in aeronautical engineering from MIT, an aviation pioneer who was the first to fly across the United States in less than 24 hours and the first to fly “blind” (using only his plane’s instruments), a barnstormer well known for aerobatics, a popular racing pilot who won every major air race at least once, recipient of both the Congressional Medal of Honor and Presidential Medal of Freedom, a four-star general, and commander of both the 8th, 12th and 15th Air Forces. This memoir provides insights into the public and private world of Jimmy Doolittle and his family and sheds light on the drives and motivation of one of America's most influential and ambitious aviators.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : CLANDESTINE COVER-UP Accountant Victoria Hayes never would have thought discovering fraud in her office would put her life at risk. When her house catches fire, destroying the evidence she's collected, it seems the mastermind will do anything to keep Victoria from disclosing what she knows. Unsure what to do, she turns to her charming supervisor for help. But without much evidence, Jeff Tucker is reluctant to believe Victoria…until they both become suspects. Now they must work together to prove their innocence…and stay alive. With an unpredictable—and deadly—criminal after them, each step could be their last.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : A gay man’s murder leads Hastings to a blackmail plot Charles Hardaway climbs the hill to his house, immediately missing the bright lights and conversation of the bar and dreading the return to his lover, who is slowly dying of AIDS. But Hardaway’s self-pity is interrupted by a pipe-wielding stranger, who crushes his skull before slipping away. It’s nighttime in the Castro, and another gay man has been sent to his grave. Homicide lieutenant Frank Hastings is tempted to write the killing off as another heinous instance of gay-bashing, but witnesses say the killer was alone, and seemed to know the victim. Digging into Hardaway’s past, Hastings finds evidence that he was a blackmailer who pushed one of his targets to the breaking point. In a neighborhood where disease and hatred claim more and more lives every day, it seems one man has been done in by plain old-fashioned greed.
A Calculated Risk Book Summary : In the aftermath of World War II and the Holocaust, the Truman White House led the effort to establish the state of Israel. But, was it inevitable that the U.S. would endorse the concept of a Jewish state? Was U.S. policy entirely pro-Jewish? To what extent did the State Department influence Presidents Roosevelt and Truman in regard to Palestine? How aware were the two presidents of the probable consequences of their decisions about the Middle East? A Calculated Risk explores these questions and more. It examines the intricate international diplomacy that helped pave the way for the creation of the Jewish state and evaluates the conflicting pressures brought to bear on the U.S. with respect to the Palestine question, and specifically the recognition of Israel, from 1942-1948. Impartial, well researched, and highly readable, it tells the complete story of the balancing act that changed the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Calculated Risk Military Theory And The Allies Campaign In Italy 1943 1944 Book Summary : In September 1943 allied armies of the United States and Great Britain landed on the European mainland in its “soft underbelly” taking another step toward the defeat of Nazi Germany. Expecting to be in Rome by the end of that year, the Allies instead found themselves embroiled in a prolonged struggle of static warfare reminiscent of the western front of 1915-16. In the end the allied armies suffered 312,000 casualties in a campaign whose purpose was not clearly decided. This monograph examines the Allies campaign in the Mediterranean in 1943-1944 in order to answer the question of whether the Allies could have “won” and, if so, how. More specifically, this study looks at the utility of military theory for explaining cause and effect, and for providing a basis for operational insight and assessment of risk. This particular historical case study is significant in that the challenges of difficult terrain, coalition command, multinational forces, limited resources, and bad weather faced by the operational commanders of this campaign are factors that may weigh heavily for operational commanders in future conflicts. Conclusions reached in this study are threefold. First, the operational commanders involved did not have a true appreciation of the operational risks taken when major operations were designed and executed in January 1944. Second, the operational and strategic commanders may have chosen a different course of action if these risks had been more fully appreciated. Third, classical theory, as represented by the writings of Clausewitz, Jomini, and even Liddell Hart, does have utility in explaining cause and effect and may well have provided the commanders concerned in this case clearer insight at the operational level of war.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : I thought the ring on my finger would do the trick and keep men away. All I wanted was to save my heart from shattering-again. The truth is, I'm not married. The ring was just a ploy-a ploy to keep me safe, protected from pain. But then Marcus Riley came along with his goofy pick-up lines, and he saw right through the facade. He knew the truth, and he wanted me. God help me, I wanted him too--in so many ways. But love is a risk, a painful, scary risk. One I'm too afraid to take. Unless... He's the one risk worth taking. But it just might come at a price.
Calculated Risks Book Summary : Public concern regarding environmental pollution and chemicals present in foods, consumer products, and the work place are at an all time high. Whilst there is widespread awareness, confusion still reigns, aggravated by conflicting reports concerning carcinogens in food and drinking water, or about chemicals present in medicines and household products that may cause birth defects. The effort to understand how these pollutants and chemical products may harm human health is led by scientists in the disciplines of toxicology, epidemiology and risk assessment. The central purpose of this book is to describe how scientists come to understand the toxic properties of such chemicals and the health risks they may pose. Rather than attempting to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence or corruption, this book explores the underlying scientific issues. It presents a practical and balanced clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : She thought she was finally safe, but her past won't let her go. Sheriff's deputy Tanner Dempsey is just doing his job when he stops a shoplifter trying to steal diapers and formula. But something about this frightened young woman makes him want to do more. Bree Daniels is grateful for Tanner's help, but there's so much she can never tell him. The truth is dangerous to everyone she lets into her life – and could be lethal to Tanner.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : How does an entrepreneur take any idea and turn it into a profitable venture? What do investors look for when evaluating start-ups? These two important questions are answered in a new book by one of America's top traders, Michael J. Palumbo, called Calculated Risk: The Modern Entrepreneur's Handbook. The book helps founders and executives navigate today's business climate from idea conception through funding, expansion, and exiting. Calculated Risk provides an insider's perspective from someone in the know. Palumbo started a prop trading group in Chicago that turned into a highly successful U.S. stock options business, a firm that was one of the largest equity options trading groups in the country in the late 1990's and early 2000's. Palumbo's book reveals the following: * How to launch an idea from concept to funding. * How to best hire and build a start-up - right until you exit. * What venture capitalists look for in a start-up -and why it is not always profitability. * What start-ups should look for from their investors - it is not always about the money. * Why the best entrepreneurs are the ones who can predict what people will need before they even know they in fact need it. * How some entrepreneurs can gain an edge over their competition. Palumbo has a tell-it-like-it-is approach to revealing insights in the marketplace on how things will shake out. Offering a voice of experience and vision, Palumbo not only explains why something is happening in the markets, but also reveals why something will happen.
Calculated Risks Book Summary : Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.
Calculated Risk Book Summary : America is being pushed back by the Axis powers. In Europe, the Germans are moving their massive armies deeper into Russia. Rommel is driving the British back into Egypt. Along the East Coast, the United States seems powerless to stop the slaughter of ships from Nazi U-boats. The Pacific is turning into a Japanese controlled sea. But the Americans have just blunted the attack on Port Moresby at the Battle of the Coral Sea. Now the United States Navy faces a new threat aimed directly at their few remaining aircraft carriers and the strategic island of Midway. Admiral King's Science Team is sent to help the beleaguered forces in the Pacific turn the tide and stop the Japanese advance. Strategies based upon newly developed intelligence and gut hunches drive the outnumbered Americans to attack the enemy and prepare to counter their next push in the southwest Pacific on a jungle island named Guadalcanal.